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C00002 00002	%bernst[w89,jmc]		Comments for Bernstam conference
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%bernst[w89,jmc]		Comments for Bernstam conference

	Comments on papers by Singer, Kaplan and Falkenmark.

	As contributions to projecting the future or to determining
policy, all three papers suffer from the same weakness, insufficent
attention to the present and future state of technology.

	Singer describes the fact that geologists and economists
have different views about resource shortages.  For example, the
geologists estimate how much more copper ore of currently minable
quality is yet to be found.  The economists point out that when
currently minable ore approaches exhaustion, lower grade ores will
be considered minable.  However, neither geologists nor the economists
address the question directly of what the actual costs will be.
This is a question for mining technology.  Unfortunately, it is
a question for the mining technology of the future.  Singer points
out that companies that mine copper or pump oil are not motivated
to spend money to discover resources for more than ten to twenty
years in the future.  Likewise, they are not motivated to spend
money to develop technology to mine ores and extract minerals from
them for ores that won't be used for more than twenty years.
In the case of copper, I think Singer and the economists have a
strong case, because we are talking only about a factor of ten
reduction in concentration and can tolerate a much larger increase
in price; a factor of 60 was mentioned.

	There is one reason for developing technology and
discovering resources much farther in advance of need.  Namely,
there is a vociferously expressed opinion, prominent in this
conference, that the technology cannot be developed and the
resources cannot be discovered.  From this point of view the
developed countries are using up the world's resources irrevocably
and the undeveloped world cannot hope to develop to present
advanced standards.  Those who believe that future technology
will match the progress of the past are unmoved.

	However, this opinion calls for policy changes,
especially reductions in standard of living, based on these
pessimistic projections.  Moreover, the pessimism is used to
justify hostility to the developed countries.  If we optimists
are right, the policy changes will be harmful and the hostility
is unwarranted and counter-productive.  It seems that many
government officials in many countries are impressed by the
pessimism and are actually making harmful policy decisions,
though not as vigorously as the pessimists demand.

	For this reason, considerable expenditures might be
justified to provide assurance that future low grade resources
can be discovered and extracted, i.e. expenditures that
companies cannot justify out of their own needs.  However,
it may be that the paper studies that have been made by
organizations like IIASA are adequate for reasonable people,
and the problem of reassurance is merely political.

	Energy is certainly the main area in which future
technological projections are important.

	Kaplan's demographic projections